FUTURE POPULATIONS, FAMILIES & FASHION
SolSolon recalls with some contentment that he never encountered the Reverend Thomas Malthus. Indeed, Solon first encountered his depressing works after Malthus’decease. Solon’s reaction to the reverend gentleman’s proposition of inevitable famine was that the analysis was enlightening, but did not seem to take into account some of the facts. In particular, the Reverend Thomas seemed to underrate both the acceleration in the rise of agricultural yields achieved by the best farmers which Solon had noted, with surprise, over the previous two centuries; and the power which some women evidently exercised to restrict the size of their families. (1)
It is therefore no surprise to Solon that over the last half century a more and more populous world has been a better and better fed world. Nor was it a surprise when the expansion of the world’s populace showed signs of slowing. However the sharp recent drop in birth rates in many countries was a shock. Solon had no idea that young women had gained that much control over their fertility.
The current projections of world population peaking at around 10 thousand million are reassuring as far as they go. The near panic in some rich nations at the small numbers in some of their recent age groups appears to Solon economically idiotic – the quantity of resources available to support the elderly in their retirement is obviously not a simple function of the number of young people in work.
The pompous nervousness (displayed in some countries) that national culture may be at risk from the phenomenon appears to him a displacement activity. Large numbers of middle-aged and elderly persons do not know what to make of the changes around them, and lack confidence in the adaptive vigour of their culture in an increasingly inter-active world. They are therefore complaining about the lack of grandchildren.
Solon is, for him, relatively happy about the macro consequences of fewer grandchildren. It is becoming very unlikely that the human population will crash from a simple combination of too many individuals alive for the food available. That leaves Solon room and time to look for other perils which could cause the catastrophic fall in population which has always overcome any past species which has become too successful.
5. The micro consequences of young women’s control over their fertility are another matter. Solon expects them to be amusing but costly. For when to have your children, and to a degree the number of them to have, are now factors which we can expect to be influenced, it may be strongly influenced, by fashion. Maternity facilities, including maternity and neonatal clothes and other goods providers, can only expect months of notice that a sharp rise or dip in demand is upon them. Toy makers already face fluctuations in their prosperity from fashions in toys; these will be amplified by fluctuations in the numbers of customers. Schools will have to be expanded with extra teachers in less time than it now takes to train the teachers. And fashion is something which statisticians, market researchers and the like have proved even worse at forecasting than economic cycle turning points.
Solon foresees that, in the medium term, bureaucracy’s difficulties in dealing with fluctuating and poorly predictable demand for maternity, child care and education will lead to a greater tolerance of private sector competitive provision in these fields. It will simply be so much easier to leave many of these headaches to those who strive to make living in such conditions. On the whole, Solon judges that this is likely to improve provision for the marginal child. Whether it will improve efficiency depends, as always, on how the change is managed.
Solon anticipates with glee the antics of the demographic statisticians trying to adapt to a world of fashion. This is the aspect of the matter which he thinks will offer the purest amusement, and the lowest costs.
Should you wish to comment, an email to solon@usesolon.org may draw a response.
